Objective
Students will interpret and analyze polling data, understand its significance in elections, and explore the factors that influence poll results. They will also gain skills in comparing multiple data sources and examining the ways data is presented to the public.
Resources Needed
- Access to FiveThirtyEight’s 2024 Presidential Polls page
- Forbes article on recent polling data for Trump vs. Harris
- Politico’s article discussing conflicting predictions for the 2024 election
- Interactive 2024 Presidential Election Map (link or classroom display)
- Meet the conservative women who are keeping their votes for Kamala Harris a secret
Introduction
1. Discuss the Importance of Polling in Elections
- Start with a class discussion on what polling data is, how it is collected, and why it’s crucial in predicting or gauging public opinion on election outcomes.
- Ask students: Why might polls matter to candidates? How could they influence voters, campaigns, or media coverage?
2. Overview of Key Sources for Polling Data
- Introduce FiveThirtyEight as a well-known website for aggregating and analyzing polling data. Discuss its role in synthesizing data from multiple pollsters and presenting comprehensive analyses.
- Briefly mention Forbes and IBTimes, explaining that these sources often discuss individual polls and can provide different perspectives on trends and predictions.
Questions for Engagement:
- What might be the advantages of consulting multiple sources for polling data?
- Why do some sources interpret polling data differently?
Activity 1: Exploring Multiple Data Sources
Objective: Compare and contrast how different media outlets present and interpret polling data.
- Guided Exploration of Sources
- Direct students to FiveThirtyEight’s Presidential Polls page to examine how the site aggregates and visualizes data across states and demographics.
- Have students read the Forbes article analyzing Trump vs. Harris polling data and the IBTimes article discussing the conflicting predictions for 2024.
- Interactive Comparison Activity
- Have students note how each source (FiveThirtyEight, Forbes, and IBTimes) presents and interprets poll data. They should consider factors like:
- Visual presentation (charts, maps, graphs)
- Methodology or language used to discuss polling trends
- Any assumptions or interpretations in the articles
- Have students note how each source (FiveThirtyEight, Forbes, and IBTimes) presents and interprets poll data. They should consider factors like:
- Task: Critical Comparison
- Instruct students to list key differences and similarities between these sources in a table. They should analyze both the presentation style and the specific information shared.
- Interactive Map Exercise: Using the 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map, update or predict possible outcomes in various states based on current polling data.
Follow-up Questions:
- What are some strengths and limitations of using aggregated polling data versus individual poll reports?
- How do each of these sources frame their data to impact readers’ interpretations?
Activity 2: In-Depth Poll Data Analysis
Objective: Dive into specific polling data for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, analyzing trends and possible influencing factors.
Group Activity: Divide students into groups to analyze recent polls and trends for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
- Group 1: Kamala Harris
- Locate the latest favorability polling average for Kamala Harris on FiveThirtyEight.
- Track her favorability over the past year. Refer to the Forbes article that shows her recent lead over Trump by 2 points.
- Discuss possible factors affecting her favorability, such as recent campaign strategies, policy proposals, or significant public appearances.
- Guiding Questions:
- What patterns emerge over the past year?
- What events or media coverage might have contributed to these trends?
- Group 2: Donald Trump
- Locate the latest favorability polling average for Donald Trump on FiveThirtyEight.
- Review how his favorability has changed, using the IBTimes article as a reference for broader predictions about the 2024 race.
- Discuss factors that might influence his favorability ratings, including his statements, policy stances, and long-standing voter base.
- Guiding Questions:
- How consistent are Trump’s favorability ratings?
- What external factors (media coverage, political events) might influence these ratings?
Group Reporting: Each group presents their findings to the class, highlighting observed trends, factors influencing these trends, and any unexpected insights.
Class Discussion Questions
- What trends did you observe in the favorability data for Harris and Trump?
- How do different pollsters’ results vary, and how might this be related to differences in methodology or sample demographics?
- What external factors—such as economic news, global events, or political debates—might influence public opinion on these candidates?
Extension Discussion:
- Discuss the concept of “polling accuracy.” Ask students to consider how polls might vary and why some predictions might turn out inaccurate. This can open up a conversation on the challenges of polling in a fast-paced digital world where public opinion can shift quickly.
