Lesson plan; Analyzing Poll Data and Predicting Election Outcomes

Objective: Students will learn how to interpret and analyze polling data, understand its significance in elections, and explore the factors that influence poll results.

The source for this lesson plan is the FiveThirtyEight website: 2024 Presidential Polls

Introduction 

1. Discuss the Importance of Polls: Explain what polling data is and why it is important in predicting election outcomes.
2. Overview of FiveThirtyEight: Briefly introduce the website and its role in aggregating and analyzing polling data.
3. Briefly introduce FiveThirtyEight, Forbes, and IBTimes as sources for polling data

Activity 1: Exploring Multiple Data Sources

• Guide students through FiveThirtyEight’s presidential polls page
• Examine the Forbes article on Trump vs. Harris polls
• Analyze the IBTimes article on conflicting 2024 predictions

Task: Compare and contrast the data presentation and analysis methods used by each source. Click on map below to update. 

Activity 2: Analyzing Poll Data

Divide students into groups to analyze recent polls:

Group 1: Kamala Harris

• Find the latest favorability polling average for Kamala Harris from FiveThirtyEight.
• Identify trends in her favorability over the past year, referencing the Forbes article that notes her recent lead over Trump by 2 points.
• Discuss factors that might influence changes in her favorability ratings, such as her campaign strategies and public perception.

Group 2: Donald Trump

• Find the latest favorability polling average for Donald Trump from FiveThirtyEight.
• Identify trends in his favorability over the past year, considering the insights from the IBTimes article that discusses predictions for the 2024 race.
• Discuss factors that might influence changes in his favorability ratings, including his established voter base and recent public statements.

Discussion Questions

• What trends do you notice in the favorability data for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?
• How do different pollsters’ results compare, particularly in light of the articles from Forbes and IBTimes?
• What external events or factors might have influenced the changes in their favorability ratings?

• Homework:

• Research Assignment: Ask students to find another state’s polling data on FiveThirtyEight and compare it to the national data. Write a short report on their findings.