Election season is well underway. Candidates are campaigning, absentee ballots are being mailed out, and early votes are being cast. It’s all leading to Nov. 5, and one big question: Who won? But to find out, votes actually have to be counted. Lisa Desjardins takes a closer look at how the Associated Press keeps track of thousands of competitive races. Source: PBS News Hour
Objective:
Students will gain a comprehensive understanding of how the Associated Press (AP) counts votes and calls races on election night. They will also develop critical thinking skills by simulating these processes, exploring the challenges of modern election reporting, and reflecting on the importance of accurate election data in a democracy.
Standards Covered:
- CCSS.ELA-LITERACY.RI.9-10.1: Cite strong and thorough textual evidence to support analysis.
- CCSS.ELA-LITERACY.SL.9-10.1: Initiate and participate effectively in collaborative discussions.
- C3 Framework for Social Studies:
- D2.Civ.8.9-12: Evaluate social and political systems in different contexts, including elections and voting systems.
- D4.3.9-12: Present information, findings, and supporting evidence, conveying complex ideas clearly and logically.
Introduction:
Discussion Prompt: Begin with a class discussion on the significance of elections in shaping democratic societies:
- Why are elections critical in shaping democratic societies?
- How do we know who wins, and why is that process important?
Then, introduce the role of the Associated Press (AP) in providing election results. Emphasize the AP’s 175-year history of reporting on elections and their responsibility in tracking over 5,000 competitive races.
Main Activities
1. The Role of the Associated Press
Direct Instruction: Explain the AP’s goal of 100% accuracy in reporting election results, and provide an overview of the large-scale operation the AP conducts each election season.
Cooperative Activity: AP Simulation
- Divide the class into small groups representing different AP teams. Provide mock election data from various races. Groups must analyze the data and decide when to call the race, following the AP’s methodology of ensuring statistical certainty before calling a winner.
- Use insights from the New York Times article “How Do Election Results Work?” to help students understand how different news organizations, including the AP, rely on data feeds and careful analysis to ensure accuracy in their reporting.
After the activity, groups will present their reasoning for calling a race or holding off, demonstrating their grasp of statistical certainty in the decision-making process.
2. Vote Counting Process
Direct Instruction: Describe the various methods used for collecting vote data: reporters at county offices, data feeds, website scraping, and manual entry. Emphasize the importance of verifying estimates of total ballots and tracking different voting methods (early, absentee, in-person).
Cooperative Activity: Data Collection Roleplay
- Assign students to roles (e.g., county reporter, data analyst, website scraper). Students will simulate collecting and reporting data to the “AP decision desk.”
- Introduce the CNN article on vote-counting delays to help students understand the real-life obstacles faced by decision desks, especially in battleground states.
Groups will then report to the “AP decision desk” (the class), simulating the real-time challenges and ensuring multiple sources for accuracy.
3. Race Calling Methodology
Direct Instruction:
- Discuss the AP’s method of calling races when only one candidate has a statistical path to victory.
- Explain the use of computer models and human analysis in decision-making.
- Introduce the VoteCast system used by AP, which involves surveys of over 120,000 people nationwide to predict voter behavior.
Cooperative Activity: Decision Desk Challenge
- Present students with a variety of election scenarios using mock data. In groups, they must analyze the data to decide whether they should call the race or wait for more information. They must justify their decisions based on trends and the available data.
4. Challenges in Modern Elections
Direct Instruction: Discuss the modern challenges of elections, particularly the shift toward early and mail-in voting, and the varying laws across states that affect when and how votes are counted.
Cooperative Activity: State Comparison Jigsaw
- Divide students into “expert groups,” with each group focusing on one state’s voting process and laws (e.g., counting mail-in ballots, early voting, etc.).
- New Source Integration: Use the Eyewitness News article on delayed election results to guide students in understanding how different states release vote totals and what new laws affect these processes.
Afterward, students will regroup and share their findings, building a comprehensive understanding of the challenges across the country.
Watch the video below
Post-Video Activities
Reflection and Discussion: Have students watch the PBS News Hour video on how the AP tracks votes. Then, students write a brief reflection on what they learned, followed by small group discussions. Use the following discussion questions to guide the conversation:
- What surprised you most about the AP’s vote-counting process?
- Why does the AP prioritize accuracy over speed in calling races?
- How has early and mail-in voting changed the way votes are counted and reported?
Conclusion and Reflection
Final Cooperative Activity: Election Night Newscast
- In groups, students create and present a mock election night newscast, integrating what they have learned about vote counting, race calling, and reporting challenges. Encourage them to use the new sources they encountered during the lesson, particularly when discussing delays or challenges with mail-in and early voting.
Assessment
Formative:
- Observe participation in group activities, roleplays, and decision-making during race calls.
Summative:
- Evaluate students’ presentations during the Election Night Newscast, focusing on their ability to synthesize information from the lesson and new sources, demonstrate critical thinking, and collaborate effectively.
Sources
- How the AP calls election winners and why it matters. Associated Press.
- How Do Election Results Work? The New York Times.
- State BOE warns some election results may be delayed on Election Night, citing new laws. Eyewitness News.
- Election experts raise fresh alarms about vote counting delays – and chaos – in battleground states. CNN.
- PBS News Hour video on AP election coverage.